How the map works

Landscape + season + recent conditions → weekly susceptibility ranking

ASSESSMENT DATEThe date of the conditions shown
1. LANDSCAPE

Static context

  • Terrain
  • Population and settlement
  • Agriculture and natural-vegetation patterns
  • Land cover
17 inputs, unchanged each week
2. DATE

Season and calendar

  • Day of year
  • Weekday
  • Japanese public holidays
For the assessment date
3. RECENT CONDITIONS

Weather and vegetation

  • Temperature, rainfall and wind
  • Surface soil moisture
  • Vegetation greenness (NDVI)
  • Vegetation moisture proxy (NDMI)
ERA5-Land: 1-, 3- and 7-day summaries.
MODIS: latest available eligible 8-day composite.
4. Preparation

Align inputs to the dashboard grid

Grid only uses cells with ≥10% natural vegetation.

5. SCORE

Use the trained model

Trained in September 2026 on 2017–2024 fire detections, the saved model scores each weekly snapshot without retraining.

6. RANK

Compare cell scores

For each date, percentiles compare scored cells across Japan or within the selected region. Red is higher, blue is lower.

7. MAP

Explore each weekly map

Choose a date, filter cells, or select one to inspect its inputs and explanation.
Arrow keys move, Enter selects nearest cell.